by
James L. Morrison
[Note: This is a re-formatted manuscript that was originally published in
On the Horizon, 1994 2(2), 3-4. It is posted here with permission
from Jossey Bass
Publishers.]
Some time ago, a colleague, responsible for planning at a small college,
asked me a simple question: How could he use On the Horizon in his
institutional planning activities?
I immediately replied: Get a site license, then reproduce and send each issue to
everyone on your planning committee, with a cover memo written on your
letterhead. This saves staff time and helps keep planning committee members
alert to future possibilities rather than focusing only on the next day or the
next week.
I have had time to reflect on my response, which although reasonable was not
fully adequate. If he asked me the question today, I would add this to my
original response: View each issue of On the Horizon as a pump-primer
to institutional planning. For example, your cover letter should urge committee
members to consider how the content of particular items in the newsletter affect
the institution and write down their thoughts (or send them to the group via
e-mail); their thoughts would be used to begin discussion at the next committee
meeting.
Before the meeting, compose a questionnaire identifying those articles in
On the Horizon that may affect either the college as a whole or particular
curricular programs in the college. Ask committee members to rank-order the most
important ones for that college, and follow this rank order for the discussion
agenda.
As you move along in the academic year and the committee becomes accustomed
to this process, request members to send you articles, notes, or commentary that
they encounter in their reading and at conferences about potential developments
that could affect the institution. Ask them to use the structure of the
newsletter: send information about signals of change in the STEEP (i.e.,
social, technological, economic, environmental, and political) categories,
on the local, regional, national, and global levels. Explain the reason for
using this structure: developments in one sector affect developments in other
sectors (i.e., a war in the Middle East affects fuel prices in the U.S.);
therefore, in order to anticipate change, we need to look for developments that
may have direct or indirect effects on the college.
Suggest that they examine their sources for change in relevant variables
(e.g., average SAT scores of entering college freshmen, percentage of black
males applying for college). What change is already taking place? Is there a
movement upward or downward? What are the projections? What are the emerging
trends (i.e., what combinations of data points--past trends, events,
precursors--suggest and support the early stages of a possible trend)? What
external events, policies, or regulatory actions would affect or be affected by
the projections? Ask your colleagues to look for forecasts by experts. Ask that
they append their own implications section to the emerging issues, critical
trends, or potential developments when they send their information items.
Summarize the articles and their implications in your cover letter when you
send the next issue of On the Horizon. As before, include a
questionnaire asking each committee member to rank the five most important items
submitted by the committee or included in the newsletter.
Prepare an agenda for the meeting that includes the top items. At the meeting,
focused around these items, draw out the implications of the potential
developments for ongoing institutional and program planning. Committee members
may want more information about a particular trend or potential event. In this
case, enlist the aid of the research librarian (who should be on your planning
committee anyway).
Regularly circulating information about potential developments and asking
committee members to think of their implications reinforces a future-oriented
posture in your colleagues. They will begin to read, hear, and talk about this
information not only as something intellectually interesting but as information
they can use in practical institutional planning.
Of course one of the major reasons for publishing On the Horizon is
to bring you and your colleagues the expertise and foresight of an exceptional
and diverse editorial board. Our objective is to alert readers to developments
that may affect their institutions and to offer college and university leaders
guidance on what proactive measures institutions can take. Please let us know
how we are doing. |